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September 4, 2022
Daniel Haimovich, Dima Karamshuk, Thomas Leeper, Evgeniy Riabenko, Milan Vojnovic

We propose a feature-based approach based on a self-excited Hawkes point process model, which involves prediction of the content’s popularity at one or more reference horizons in tandem with a point predictor of an effective growth parameter that reflects the timescale of popularity growth.